29th Day

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exponential problems require exponential solutions

April 1, 2013

“Let them eat cake”

Filed under: Activism — glberry @ 4:29 am

My thesis is that our dream of reducing federal government spending is just that … a dream. The Sequester was a minor decrease in the rate of increase in federal government spending. And yet the message from Washington is clear. We are to be punished for it. White House tours over the Easter Season were cancelled, border security has been compromised, expect long lines at airports, thousands of illegal aliens have been released from jails, military tuition assistance has been cancelled, there is even a threat to our national security. We have heard from some of our leaders that “Federal Government Spending is not a problem.”, “The National Debt is not a problem.”.

The amount of tax money in Washington has increased the concentration of power there to the point of creating an elite class of our federal representatives and bureaucrats. Did you hear that President Obama has a food taster, just like the kings in history? Our Founding Fathers experienced tyranny and much of our Constitution was designed to prevent it from happening again. Power is a zero-sum game. As power increased in Washington, it was at the expense of our personal freedom. I am old now and have witnessed the decline in our freedom firsthand.

Fortunately for us, the 21st century with personal computers and the internet has created a world where distributing power is a real possibility. Rather than expending our energy trying to force Washington to reduce spending, we should be using the power of our personal computers to start a Distribute Power Movement away from the Federal Government and back to the States. Read the US Constitution and you will see clearly that this is what our Founding Fathers had in mind.

The advantage to us would be the creation of competition. There is one Federal Government but there are 50 States. With the mobility of the population and of business, States which did what we want would grow and States which did not would shrink. But we must be quick. Already 50 percent of our population pays no federal income tax and has no incentive to transfer power back to us. You may feel that the States have not done a good job either but at least consider the possibility that may be the result of our lack of diligence, that competition among the States will be enhanced if we hold their feet to the fire.

A peculiar characteristic of Freedom is that it is not free. And it is not guaranteed. The loss of Freedom does not last for a few years … it lasts for centuries. And it is preserved the old-fashioned way. We have to earn it to deserve it. What has been happening to us is not a TV Reality Show, it is real life. All of us are busy. All of us are being encouraged to feel helpless. Many of us are waiting for someone else to do something. On a monument at Valley Forge is inscribed the words of George Washington warning future generations to guard against tyranny. He was not warning government. He was warning us.

I am hoping you will not read this blog with the intention of commenting on some small error I may have made. I am hoping you will join with me to begin a Distribute Power Movement, to begin to look for leaders who will be willing to do this, to speak out, to talk to your friends, to use the power the 21st century has given you, so that together we can change the world.

It may be that I am taking some risk of reprisal by writing this blog as you may be if you speak out. It was Socrates who said, “When the debate is over, slander is the tool of the loser”. But I am reminded of the old Chinese proverb, “To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, be nothing”.

March 16, 2013

Prove It!

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 4:59 pm

All of us know that President Obama has announced that White House tours had to be cancelled because of the Sequestration. But has anybody even tried to find out exactly what had to be cut back? Were White House staff actually laid off? Were their paid hours reduced? Is this actually true …. or is it just a ploy? Shouldn’t the White House have to demonstrate what had to be eliminated (and when) in order for the tours to be cancelled? Does anybody care about the truth anymore?

January 21, 2013

Yes, Virginia, there really is a Free Lunch

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 10:14 am

Do you remember the Financial Crisis of 2008? You woke up that morning in September, took a shower, had your first cup of coffee, turned on the news, and heard that, apparently out of nowhere, we were on the thin edge of a financial disaster that would make the Great Depression look like a picnic. Do you remember how you felt, the sense of disbelief, the feeling of real fear? How? Why?

It happened because Congress passed a law that allowed the banks to take the risk of mortgage default, and then transfer that risk to someone else. Congress even encouraged the banks to offer mortgages to anyone, regardless of their ability to pay, because everyone should be able to own their own home, right? And then Wall Street firms bundled these mortgages and sold them. But these firms didn’t take the risk either because they had transferred it to someone else. And the bankers and brokers got bonuses for doing this, the more they sold, the bigger the bonuses. Remember?

Most of us didn’t understand how it had happened because most of us don’t understand risk. Risk scares us. We may talk about it vaguely but most of us don’t understand how it works exactly, how it can be transferred exactly, how we can protect ourselves from it exactly. And so we try to steer clear of it, hope it doesn’t happen to us. Think about something else … anything else.

Actuaries understand risk. They know how it works, how to transfer it, how to be protected from it. That is their area of expertise. Many of them like the feeling of power, knowing about something that scares everybody. They have done a terrible job telling anyone else how risk really works. In fairness to actuaries, nobody else really wanted to hear about it anyway.

My three sons and I are actuaries. My eldest son and I talked about the coming Financial Crisis in 2000, when we saw the banks transfer the risk of a mortgage default to someone else. That made the risk exponential. That meant that there would be a Limiting Factor to this risk because all exponential risks have a Limiting Factor because exponential risks can’t go on forever. The way they work is that everything looks OK, and then one morning you wake up to discover that, apparently out of nowhere, the roof has caved in.

Are you thinking right now that I am bragging, being condescending, rubbing it in that I know something you don’t? My defense is this: I am trying to warn you that it is going to happen again.

I have written a book about it that is available online, The 29th Day: Changing our Future (check out www.29thday.org). The 29th day is what I call Limiting Factors. The reason these exponential risks are occurring now is because the 21st century is different than past centuries. The difference is that in this century we have computers and the internet. They have unleashed a force which I call CIC (kick). It is an exponential force created by combining Creativity, Information, and Communication. This force is making everything else exponential because of the way we now communicate. You are not imagining the world is moving more quickly. It is. So we are living in a world of exponential problems and trying to solve them with linear solutions, a holdover from the old days of the Industrial Revolution. Problems are becoming crises too quickly now and our solutions are just … too … slow. My book discusses how to substitute exponential solutions for linear solutions. Exponential solutions can avoid another 29th day; linear solutions cannot. I’m not a very good writer and I’m not famous so very few people have read it.

If you are still reading this, let’s go back to the 2008 Financial Crisis. Who paid for this exponential risk? Who got left holding the bag? Was it the banks or Wall Street or politicians? Not hardly. No, you and I paid for it, you and I ended up being the risk-takers. You and I paid for their Free Lunch, Virginia. And most of us didn’t even know how it had happened.

Did your 401(k) evaporate that September? Did you lose your job? Did the value of your home drop below the amount of your mortgage? Did you lose some of your choices, some of your freedom? If so, then you have already paid for it. For the rest of us (for all of us), the rest of the payment has been deferred, but not forgotten. If you think about it, you know where it is. It is buried in our National Debt.

What are the big ticket exponential risks right now, for which there will be 29th days … guaranteed … and in our lifetime, to boot. Well, we have the National Debt, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, unfunded public pension liabilities (bankrupting states and cities), Iran’s foray into nuclear weapons, the Arab Spring, just to mention a few. Are there linear solutions that can avoid them. NO! Are there exponential solutions that can protect us from them. YES!

Why am I telling you this? Am I just perverse? No, I am telling you this because CIC did something else. It transferred power to you and to me. Now we have a voice with our computers and the internet, with email, with Facebook, with Twitter, with Blogs. If enough of us use these tools, our leaders will hear us, they will have to hear us. They will realize that we understand these exponential risks are real, that 29th days are guaranteed unless concrete action is taken, that we are the ones who are taking these risks, and we don’t like it.

If we expect our politicians to understand risk, to figure out exponential solutions to exponential problems, then we will be looking for answers in the wrong place. They are motivated to kick the can down the road, to hope that somehow these problems can be deferred until they are out of office. You know it and I know it. We will have to make it crystal clear to them that we are demanding concrete workable solutions … now.

I know you are busy, that this seems like an impossible task, that it seems too complicated, that you may be hoping someone else will do it. I know that the news just seems like a TV Reality Show, that we feel helpless to change it. But this is real life, your life that is on the line.

I say to you with all the earnestness that I possess, begin to speak out, tell your friends to speak out. The effect of your action, at first, will seem insignificant, that nothing is changing. Be patient because what you will be doing is exponential. At first, it will appear that nothing is changing because that is the way that exponential forces work. But something will be changing. And someday, you will wake up one morning, have that first cup of coffee, turn on the news, and hear that you have been heard … guaranteed.

If we do nothing, then someday when we turn on the news, we will learn that, apparently out of nowhere, we will have lost our standard of living, we will have lost our freedom, and our worst nightmare has suddenly come true. Still don’t believe me? Show this to an actuary. See what he (she) says about it.

For the moment, the choice is ours. The price-tag is our future.

Remember. The exponential clock is ticking.
tick … tick … tick.

January 3, 2013

The Sin of Omission

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 9:06 am

If enough of us were willing to speak out about injustice, our leaders would not dare to be deceptive. This sin of omission on our part hurts us and our national honor … not them. That is the irony of a sin of omission. We see the risk as the consequences to ourselves if we dare to be bold and speak out. In fact, the risk is the damage we do to our character and self-respect if we remain silent. Think of the people you admire and respect. Do they speak out or do they hide in the background?

Be bold my friends and you will be changing the world.

December 14, 2012

What is thinking exponentially?

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 12:26 pm

Here are three examples of thinking exponentially.
1. Do your best to make people feel that they are important. They will become engaged and increase their effort to 110%. Here is a simple example – eliminate reserved parking spaces from the company parking lot.
2. When you accomplish something, don’t try to take credit for it. You will end up getting more credit than you think and people will want to work with you.
3. Be willing to tell people everything you know – don’t be an information hoarder. You will find that they will return the favor. The person who gets ahead fastest is the one who teaches someone else how to do their job. Then when a promotion comes up, someone is available immediately to take over their old job.

Exponential thinking is not just a new way of thinking, it is a new, rewarding way of life.

November 5, 2012

How Can We Change the Future?

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 3:14 pm

CIC (kick) is the power unleashed by computers and the internet in the 21st century. CIC is the exponential force created by combining Creativity, Information, and Communication. You are not imagining the world is moving more quickly. It is. The old linear ideas of the Industrial Age and the 20th century don’t work anymore because they are just … too … slow. One of the most vital things that CIC does is to transfer or distribute power from institutions to their “markets”, that is, to people like you and me. This is happening whether the product of these institutions is cars, health care, government, religion, or working conditions. This is what empowers us to redirect the future.

An exponential solution relies on a Trusted Messenger with a Message which is an exact match to the (enlightened) self-interest of the target audience. This audience, therefore, adopts the solution immediately which makes it quick and effective (this is how Treasury Secretary Paulson was able to avoid an economic meltdown immediately following the 2008 Financial Crisis). This is the art of “fighting without fighting”.

On the other hand, a linear solution (a holdover from the Concentrated Power days of the Industrial Revolution) relies on persuasion and/or coercion and does not match the (enlightened) self-interest of the target audience. This audience, therefore resists adopting the solution which makes it slow and ineffective (the 2009 Economic Stimulus and Obamacare are linear solutions). This is the art of “fighting by fighting”.

So, what can we do to change the future? One way is to vote on November 6, 2012. No excuses. Another way is to support those with the courage to speak out (or speak out yourself). Yet another way is to do one act, one small act, that will begin to move us in the right direction. Remember, in this new world, all of these things will have an exponential effect. Such change will not come from government. It will come from the individual actions of millions of people who are willing to step out and have their say. Just look at what happened in 2012 in Egypt, for example. Recall how the United States became the United States. Don’t let someone else decide your future!

Our country is in a mess. You know it and I know it. We could use a miracle right about now. Many of us feel that Biblical miracles can be explained away as natural events. But this is only the how of the miracle. The real miracle is the when of the miracle. Think about how the Israelites escaped from the Egyptians because the Red Sea parted at exactly the right time. Would we think of it as a miracle if the Red Sea had parted, say, a year later?

My life experience, particularly close to nature in a remote area of Canada, confirms for me the reality of God’s Love and Power. It is the stuff of miracles. And so one question remains. Do we have the Courage and the Faith to ask God for one … right now? God does not do His work through governments. He works through individuals … like you and like me. Today is November 5. Tomorrow we elect a President for the next four years. You and I must decide if it is time to ask for that miracle.

October 24, 2012

Socrates said it all!

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 4:03 am

“When the debate is over slander becomes the tool of the loser.”

What is the Real Problem with Illegal Immigration? – Part 2

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 2:52 am

In Part 1, I discussed the characteristics of the problem of illegal immigration. The question Americans are asking themselves is … “Why can’t we find a resolution?”.

Recently I read a Time Magazine article written by a journalist who has admitted publicly that he is an illegal alien and still cannot find out from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) whether or not he will be deported.

US federal politicians have come up with a laundry list of reasons to follow the statement, “This is why we can’t fix the illegal immigration problem right now.” The US has been singularly unsuccessful in securing the US/Mexican border. Rudy Guiliani says he could do it fairly easily. Perhaps the US should hire him. Look what he did for New York City. Does this sound like the United States? – the “can-do” country?, the country that is a “nation of laws”? Or, does this sound like a country that has lost its way, to the severe detriment of American self-respect, and loss of international prestige?

There is a moral issue here which, in my opinion, suggests a solution to this problem. The reason the United States does not have a corresponding problem with other people who break the law is because existing laws are enforced and such people are brought to justice. While some of them may never be caught, they are still considered to be criminals and the intent of the legal system is to find and prosecute them. For some crimes, there is a statute of limitation which says that they can no longer be prosecuted after a defined length of time. In effect, at that point, the government can no longer enforce the law and such people are treated as if they were innocent. This is the foundation of our legal system.

The reason that there are at least 12-20 million illegal immigrants in the United States is because the federal government has decided voluntarily not to enforce existing law. While it may be difficult to enforce the law, surely the solution cannot be to abandon enforcing the law. The cause of the illegal immigrant problem, therefore, is not illegal immigrants, it is the federal government (both Democrat and Republican administrations, by the way). The result is that illegal immigrants are living and working in the United States as if they were citizens but must live in the shadows because of their uncertainty about whether or not they might be deported. So, they have none of the legal protections citizens have which means they can be exploited and mistreated with impunity.

The moral issue needs to be stated with clarity: “Is it moral for the United States to treat any human being this way?”. I would state categorically that the answer is “No!”. It seems to me that two things have to happen to begin to correct the illegal immigration problem. 1. The United States (including the Federal Government, States, and Sanctuary Cities) has to state unequivocally that, after a certain date, all immigration laws will be enforced and anyone entering the country illegally will be subject to prosecution … period. Whether or not it is difficult to do so is irrelevant. 2. Anyone who is in the United States illegally before that date will be allowed to apply for citizenship as the moral resolution of the federal government’s failure to enforce existing law. My thanks to the Politically Correct crowd for making this an issue. While I do not agree with how they did it, I applaud that they did it.

What is the Real Problem with Illegal Immigration? – Part 1

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 2:33 am

While Political Correctness has done a lot of damage to Free Speech in America, there is at least one area where it has focused attention on a problem which must be resolved … Immigration. Immigration is a hot topic in the United States today, especially Illegal Immigration. The central question about illegal immigration in the US, for almost all Americans, is, “Why in the world does the US Federal Government seem incapable of resolving this issue … is it incompetence, is it partisan bickering … or … is it something else?”.

There are two characteristics of illegal immigrants that stand out – cheap labor, and potential future voters.

-They have low expectations. The per capita income in Mexico, for example, is 25% of the per capita income in the US.

-The rapid population growth in Mexico, for example, means fewer jobs there, especially for young people.

-They are easily exploitable because they are illegal and can’t complain.

-There are now 12-16 million or 7-20 million illegal immigrants in the US, depending upon whom you ask. Granting amnesty would create a very significant number of new voters.

To put it bluntly,

-this kind of cheap labor is just another form of slavery,

-trying to make them voters is just blatant manipulation of them and of the democratic process.

We ought to be ashamed of ourselves.

In the meantime, because the US has stopped enforcing existing Federal Immigration Law (whatever happened to “We are a nation of laws”?),

-there are now “sanctuary cities” in the US for illegal aliens,

-they are receiving welfare, education, and other social services, to the severe detriment of State Budgets.

-the “open border” has substantially increased drug traffic and violence,

-Arizona has become the area of choice in the Western world for kidnapping,

-it has become easier to ignore or not enforce other laws,

-the US is losing its confidence and stature in the arena of foreign affairs,

-it has become Politically Correct to label, as a racist, anyone who wants to enforce existing Federal Immigration Law,

… and on, and on.

What is wrong here … and what will make it right? I will address this question in Part 2.

October 23, 2012

Are we approaching the 29th day for the United States?

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 7:14 pm

Are we approaching the 29th day for the United States? (September, 2012). I do not say this lightly and, in my opinion, both political parties share the responsibility for the current state of affairs. Consider what has happened.

-The US National Debt went over $16 trillion (that is 16,000 billions). That is more than $51,000 for every man, woman, and child.

-The third Quantitative Easing (printing $40 billion per month) announced by the Federal Reserve caused the rating organization, Egan-Jones to lower the US Government to AA- from AA. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, called it a “sugar-high” for the economy less than two months before the Federal Election. Too much money chasing too few goods and services always leads to inflation. It is inescapable.

-The United States is mired in a stagnant economy with unemployment remaining above 8% and the increase in Gross Domestic Product stuck below 2%. Average income is declining and the number of people below the poverty level is higher than it has been for decades. The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire or be renewed on January1, 2013 as are the devastating Sequestration cuts to military and domestic spending. Obamacare is in the process of implementation with as yet an unknown impact on health costs and taxes. Expanding regulation has inhibited business to grow and expand. The debt crisis in the European Union shows no signs of being resolved with attendant repercussions for the American economy. All of these factors introduce uncertainty, the “economy-killer”, into the mix.

-Illegal immigration continues to be an unresolved issue with no light on the horizon.

-On September 11, the anniversary of the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City, there were demonstrations against the United States in Egypt and soon afterward across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and even in Australia. These were ostensibly a reaction to an obscure YouTube movie which appeared in July denigrating Islam.

-The US Libyan Embassy was set on fire and the US Ambassador and three members of the Consulate Staff were killed. Members of the Obama Administration claimed that this was a spontaneous reaction to the YouTube movie despite the fact that Rocket Propelled Grenades were involved and everybody else seemed to be convinced that this was a preplanned terrorist revenge attack coordinated to take place on September 11. After eight days, White House Press Secretary, Jay Carney, acknowledged it was “self-evident” that this was a terrorist attack. Nevertheless, the Administration is still claiming it was tied to the YouTube movie. What is interesting is that in the second Presidential Debate on October 22, 2012 President Obama said unequivocally that he had stated this was a terrorist attack during a press conference in the Rose Garden on September 12, 2012, one day after the attack. And now, on October 23, 2012 an email from the State Department to the White House Situation Room has come to light stating as it happened that the attack was by a terror group. Earlier requests for additional security were denied and then later during the attack there were three unanswered calls for help. Can it get any worse? And finally, wouldn’t the Obama Administration be offering more information if it made them look better?

-President Obama appeared on the David Letterman TV Show and yet was too busy to meet with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, to discuss the inexorable progress by Iran toward the successful development of nuclear weapons. The US has refused to “red-line” Iran which would define a point beyond which action would be taken.

-The risk of an interrupted oil supply is increasing exponentially. It is becoming obvious to everyone that the United States must move quickly toward domestic energy independence. The adverse consequences of our failure to do this have been horrendous both domestically and, in particular, with respect to US foreign policy in the Middle East and elsewhere. And yet … and yet the Obama Administration continues to refuse to approve construction of the Keystone XL Canadian oil sands pipe-line. Shall we wait until the Canadians decide to sell the oil to the Chinese? A report on the potentially enormous oil and gas resources of the 1.5 million acre ANWR area of Alaska was submitted in 1987 to Congress by the Department of the Interior. No action has been taken. Drilling leases on federal lands are not being approved. What are we waiting for?

President Obama continues his uninterrupted campaigning and the US Congress is on the verge of a long recess. Shouldn’t Americans feel completely justified to be outraged by the lack of response to the now obvious deterioration of the United States both domestically and abroad? Are US political leaders aware of the risk and real danger here? They are playing with fire and acting like the man who was asked for the definition of Ignorance and Apathy. His response was, “I don’t know and I don’t care.” As for help from our Allies, remember, the first reality of geopolitics is anarchy. All countries will never fail to act in their own self-interest.

Americans should be asking ourselves one simple question, “Are things getting better or are things getting worse?”. And we should be asking a more difficult question, “What am I prepared to do about it?” . How long can we continue to say, “I’m too busy”, “It’s not my problem”, “I’m not interested”? Are we just going to wait for the 29th day?

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