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exponential problems require exponential solutions

March 16, 2013

Prove It!

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 4:59 pm

All of us know that President Obama has announced that White House tours had to be cancelled because of the Sequestration. But has anybody even tried to find out exactly what had to be cut back? Were White House staff actually laid off? Were their paid hours reduced? Is this actually true …. or is it just a ploy? Shouldn’t the White House have to demonstrate what had to be eliminated (and when) in order for the tours to be cancelled? Does anybody care about the truth anymore?

November 5, 2012

How Can We Change the Future?

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 3:14 pm

CIC (kick) is the power unleashed by computers and the internet in the 21st century. CIC is the exponential force created by combining Creativity, Information, and Communication. You are not imagining the world is moving more quickly. It is. The old linear ideas of the Industrial Age and the 20th century don’t work anymore because they are just … too … slow. One of the most vital things that CIC does is to transfer or distribute power from institutions to their “markets”, that is, to people like you and me. This is happening whether the product of these institutions is cars, health care, government, religion, or working conditions. This is what empowers us to redirect the future.

An exponential solution relies on a Trusted Messenger with a Message which is an exact match to the (enlightened) self-interest of the target audience. This audience, therefore, adopts the solution immediately which makes it quick and effective (this is how Treasury Secretary Paulson was able to avoid an economic meltdown immediately following the 2008 Financial Crisis). This is the art of “fighting without fighting”.

On the other hand, a linear solution (a holdover from the Concentrated Power days of the Industrial Revolution) relies on persuasion and/or coercion and does not match the (enlightened) self-interest of the target audience. This audience, therefore resists adopting the solution which makes it slow and ineffective (the 2009 Economic Stimulus and Obamacare are linear solutions). This is the art of “fighting by fighting”.

So, what can we do to change the future? One way is to vote on November 6, 2012. No excuses. Another way is to support those with the courage to speak out (or speak out yourself). Yet another way is to do one act, one small act, that will begin to move us in the right direction. Remember, in this new world, all of these things will have an exponential effect. Such change will not come from government. It will come from the individual actions of millions of people who are willing to step out and have their say. Just look at what happened in 2012 in Egypt, for example. Recall how the United States became the United States. Don’t let someone else decide your future!

Our country is in a mess. You know it and I know it. We could use a miracle right about now. Many of us feel that Biblical miracles can be explained away as natural events. But this is only the how of the miracle. The real miracle is the when of the miracle. Think about how the Israelites escaped from the Egyptians because the Red Sea parted at exactly the right time. Would we think of it as a miracle if the Red Sea had parted, say, a year later?

My life experience, particularly close to nature in a remote area of Canada, confirms for me the reality of God’s Love and Power. It is the stuff of miracles. And so one question remains. Do we have the Courage and the Faith to ask God for one … right now? God does not do His work through governments. He works through individuals … like you and like me. Today is November 5. Tomorrow we elect a President for the next four years. You and I must decide if it is time to ask for that miracle.

October 24, 2012

Socrates said it all!

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 4:03 am

“When the debate is over slander becomes the tool of the loser.”

What is the Real Problem with Illegal Immigration? – Part 2

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 2:52 am

In Part 1, I discussed the characteristics of the problem of illegal immigration. The question Americans are asking themselves is … “Why can’t we find a resolution?”.

Recently I read a Time Magazine article written by a journalist who has admitted publicly that he is an illegal alien and still cannot find out from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) whether or not he will be deported.

US federal politicians have come up with a laundry list of reasons to follow the statement, “This is why we can’t fix the illegal immigration problem right now.” The US has been singularly unsuccessful in securing the US/Mexican border. Rudy Guiliani says he could do it fairly easily. Perhaps the US should hire him. Look what he did for New York City. Does this sound like the United States? – the “can-do” country?, the country that is a “nation of laws”? Or, does this sound like a country that has lost its way, to the severe detriment of American self-respect, and loss of international prestige?

There is a moral issue here which, in my opinion, suggests a solution to this problem. The reason the United States does not have a corresponding problem with other people who break the law is because existing laws are enforced and such people are brought to justice. While some of them may never be caught, they are still considered to be criminals and the intent of the legal system is to find and prosecute them. For some crimes, there is a statute of limitation which says that they can no longer be prosecuted after a defined length of time. In effect, at that point, the government can no longer enforce the law and such people are treated as if they were innocent. This is the foundation of our legal system.

The reason that there are at least 12-20 million illegal immigrants in the United States is because the federal government has decided voluntarily not to enforce existing law. While it may be difficult to enforce the law, surely the solution cannot be to abandon enforcing the law. The cause of the illegal immigrant problem, therefore, is not illegal immigrants, it is the federal government (both Democrat and Republican administrations, by the way). The result is that illegal immigrants are living and working in the United States as if they were citizens but must live in the shadows because of their uncertainty about whether or not they might be deported. So, they have none of the legal protections citizens have which means they can be exploited and mistreated with impunity.

The moral issue needs to be stated with clarity: “Is it moral for the United States to treat any human being this way?”. I would state categorically that the answer is “No!”. It seems to me that two things have to happen to begin to correct the illegal immigration problem. 1. The United States (including the Federal Government, States, and Sanctuary Cities) has to state unequivocally that, after a certain date, all immigration laws will be enforced and anyone entering the country illegally will be subject to prosecution … period. Whether or not it is difficult to do so is irrelevant. 2. Anyone who is in the United States illegally before that date will be allowed to apply for citizenship as the moral resolution of the federal government’s failure to enforce existing law. My thanks to the Politically Correct crowd for making this an issue. While I do not agree with how they did it, I applaud that they did it.

What is the Real Problem with Illegal Immigration? – Part 1

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 2:33 am

While Political Correctness has done a lot of damage to Free Speech in America, there is at least one area where it has focused attention on a problem which must be resolved … Immigration. Immigration is a hot topic in the United States today, especially Illegal Immigration. The central question about illegal immigration in the US, for almost all Americans, is, “Why in the world does the US Federal Government seem incapable of resolving this issue … is it incompetence, is it partisan bickering … or … is it something else?”.

There are two characteristics of illegal immigrants that stand out – cheap labor, and potential future voters.

-They have low expectations. The per capita income in Mexico, for example, is 25% of the per capita income in the US.

-The rapid population growth in Mexico, for example, means fewer jobs there, especially for young people.

-They are easily exploitable because they are illegal and can’t complain.

-There are now 12-16 million or 7-20 million illegal immigrants in the US, depending upon whom you ask. Granting amnesty would create a very significant number of new voters.

To put it bluntly,

-this kind of cheap labor is just another form of slavery,

-trying to make them voters is just blatant manipulation of them and of the democratic process.

We ought to be ashamed of ourselves.

In the meantime, because the US has stopped enforcing existing Federal Immigration Law (whatever happened to “We are a nation of laws”?),

-there are now “sanctuary cities” in the US for illegal aliens,

-they are receiving welfare, education, and other social services, to the severe detriment of State Budgets.

-the “open border” has substantially increased drug traffic and violence,

-Arizona has become the area of choice in the Western world for kidnapping,

-it has become easier to ignore or not enforce other laws,

-the US is losing its confidence and stature in the arena of foreign affairs,

-it has become Politically Correct to label, as a racist, anyone who wants to enforce existing Federal Immigration Law,

… and on, and on.

What is wrong here … and what will make it right? I will address this question in Part 2.

October 23, 2012

Are we approaching the 29th day for the United States?

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 7:14 pm

Are we approaching the 29th day for the United States? (September, 2012). I do not say this lightly and, in my opinion, both political parties share the responsibility for the current state of affairs. Consider what has happened.

-The US National Debt went over $16 trillion (that is 16,000 billions). That is more than $51,000 for every man, woman, and child.

-The third Quantitative Easing (printing $40 billion per month) announced by the Federal Reserve caused the rating organization, Egan-Jones to lower the US Government to AA- from AA. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, called it a “sugar-high” for the economy less than two months before the Federal Election. Too much money chasing too few goods and services always leads to inflation. It is inescapable.

-The United States is mired in a stagnant economy with unemployment remaining above 8% and the increase in Gross Domestic Product stuck below 2%. Average income is declining and the number of people below the poverty level is higher than it has been for decades. The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire or be renewed on January1, 2013 as are the devastating Sequestration cuts to military and domestic spending. Obamacare is in the process of implementation with as yet an unknown impact on health costs and taxes. Expanding regulation has inhibited business to grow and expand. The debt crisis in the European Union shows no signs of being resolved with attendant repercussions for the American economy. All of these factors introduce uncertainty, the “economy-killer”, into the mix.

-Illegal immigration continues to be an unresolved issue with no light on the horizon.

-On September 11, the anniversary of the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City, there were demonstrations against the United States in Egypt and soon afterward across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and even in Australia. These were ostensibly a reaction to an obscure YouTube movie which appeared in July denigrating Islam.

-The US Libyan Embassy was set on fire and the US Ambassador and three members of the Consulate Staff were killed. Members of the Obama Administration claimed that this was a spontaneous reaction to the YouTube movie despite the fact that Rocket Propelled Grenades were involved and everybody else seemed to be convinced that this was a preplanned terrorist revenge attack coordinated to take place on September 11. After eight days, White House Press Secretary, Jay Carney, acknowledged it was “self-evident” that this was a terrorist attack. Nevertheless, the Administration is still claiming it was tied to the YouTube movie. What is interesting is that in the second Presidential Debate on October 22, 2012 President Obama said unequivocally that he had stated this was a terrorist attack during a press conference in the Rose Garden on September 12, 2012, one day after the attack. And now, on October 23, 2012 an email from the State Department to the White House Situation Room has come to light stating as it happened that the attack was by a terror group. Earlier requests for additional security were denied and then later during the attack there were three unanswered calls for help. Can it get any worse? And finally, wouldn’t the Obama Administration be offering more information if it made them look better?

-President Obama appeared on the David Letterman TV Show and yet was too busy to meet with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, to discuss the inexorable progress by Iran toward the successful development of nuclear weapons. The US has refused to “red-line” Iran which would define a point beyond which action would be taken.

-The risk of an interrupted oil supply is increasing exponentially. It is becoming obvious to everyone that the United States must move quickly toward domestic energy independence. The adverse consequences of our failure to do this have been horrendous both domestically and, in particular, with respect to US foreign policy in the Middle East and elsewhere. And yet … and yet the Obama Administration continues to refuse to approve construction of the Keystone XL Canadian oil sands pipe-line. Shall we wait until the Canadians decide to sell the oil to the Chinese? A report on the potentially enormous oil and gas resources of the 1.5 million acre ANWR area of Alaska was submitted in 1987 to Congress by the Department of the Interior. No action has been taken. Drilling leases on federal lands are not being approved. What are we waiting for?

President Obama continues his uninterrupted campaigning and the US Congress is on the verge of a long recess. Shouldn’t Americans feel completely justified to be outraged by the lack of response to the now obvious deterioration of the United States both domestically and abroad? Are US political leaders aware of the risk and real danger here? They are playing with fire and acting like the man who was asked for the definition of Ignorance and Apathy. His response was, “I don’t know and I don’t care.” As for help from our Allies, remember, the first reality of geopolitics is anarchy. All countries will never fail to act in their own self-interest.

Americans should be asking ourselves one simple question, “Are things getting better or are things getting worse?”. And we should be asking a more difficult question, “What am I prepared to do about it?” . How long can we continue to say, “I’m too busy”, “It’s not my problem”, “I’m not interested”? Are we just going to wait for the 29th day?

Which Goose Lays the Golden Eggs?

Filed under: Political — glberry @ 6:04 pm

The United States (July, 2012) is on the brink of a divisive conflict between the Public Sector and the Private Sector (politically defined as “the middle class vs. the super-rich”). These two sectors have a quasi-symbiotic relationship. The Public Sector provides protection, regulation, infrastructure, and a safety net. The Private Sector finances the Public Sector by paying taxes, and creates jobs and wealth through innovation and risk-taking which is what enables it to pay taxes. The Public Sector hurts itself by being too onerous because that results in lower tax revenue. There is a limit to the alternative of borrowing and increasing the National Debt which occurs when lenders will simply refuse to lend. If and when that day comes, all of us will suffer far beyond our worst nightmare.

The reality is the Private Sector, not the Public Sector, is the goose that lays the golden eggs. Cripple the Private Sector, or the people who expand the Private Sector… and no more golden eggs. The creative spark of the unencumbered, entrepreneurial individual mind, whether in the form of the wheel, the telephone, or the computer, lights the path to prosperity. The rest is just window dressing. To say otherwise will never make it so.

One indication of the confusion about the free enterprise system is the controversy which has erupted in July, 2012 about the contribution of small business to the economy. What the small businessman does that employees and government do not is he (or she) takes a risk. If it works, he is successful; if it doesn’t he can lose everything. This is the essence of the free enterprise system and I am disappointed that nobody, Democrat or Republican, has mentioned it.

We have reached a tipping point as a result of the collusive relationship between politicians and unions, and misleading accounting practices – politicians have been promising higher pension and medical benefits to public employees for decades in exchange for election support by their unions. These benefits have been massively underfunded raising the specter of city and state bankruptcies. At the national level, the tipping point may be the actual cost if Obamacare is implemented, or simply waiting too long to repair Social Security and Medicare.

The very real threat of “A house divided against itself cannot stand” in this looming tragedy is because
half of us pay income taxes … and half of us don’t,
a few of us are wealthy … and most of us are not,
something which is ripe for unscrupulous political manipulation in an election year. And watch out for what Socrates said, “When the debate is over, slander becmes the tool of the loser”.

We have had a glimpse of the future in Greece and even in the State of Wisconsin. This is becoming a life and death struggle between concentration of power and distribution of power, between coercion and enlightened self-interest, between tyranny and freedom. It is time for all of us to take a stand one way or the other or get out of the way. Be wary of four fatal errors: 1. Everything will be resolved satisfactorily even if we do nothing; 2. This is really a struggle between the rich and the poor; 3. The Public Sector is the goose that lays the golden eggs; 4. A tyrant will be kind and generous to us.

September 20, 2010

The Coming Tea Party Tsunami and the Political Establishment

Filed under: Activism,Political,Theoretical — glberry @ 6:01 pm

Remember when the Tsunami hit Thailand a few years ago? We saw tragic images of children playing on the beach just moments before the wave overcame and engulfed them. With regards to the Tea Party movement and politics in America, the elite media and the establishment political class (both Democrat and Republican) remind me of those children.

So we see Democrat strategists crafting messages for political gain. We see the likes of Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer wringing their hands over who will hold committee chairmanships in the Senate.

Such chitter chatter reminds me of those poor children who may have been arguing over who gets to place the flag on the top of the sand castle not realizing that 1/4 mile off shore there was a 15 foot wall of water that was about to completely overwhelm them. And then they wonder why we don’t pay them any mind.

The establishment is a power hoarding structure. It uses Creativity and Information (CI). It will try to consolidate its power as it crashes. The tea party is a power distributing structure. It uses Creativity, Information and Communication. It will continue to expand. The Communication component is both its method and message to distribute power.

That is not the only difference. The CI political establishment is centralized while the tea party is decentralized. This is a critical difference when it comes to robustness and power. See CIC and Complexity: The Tea Party as a Complex System.

The establishment and the tea party manifest their impacts on different scales. A complex system like the tea party operates on the individual person level but effects of the system can occur at a much higher level. This is called emergence. Emergent properties are not visible at lower scale (i.e. by looking at individual members of the tea party) and are not predictable by looking at the members of a system. Examples of an unexpected and unpredictable emergent property include the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts and the primary losses of eight national office incumbents. I expect the results of November 2 will also be surprising.

More than November 2, I expect incumbent losses to accelerate in 2012 and 2014. Even before the 2012 election, expect to see pro-term limit activism increase. Pay attention to 10th amendment movements next year, especially in the context of the Health Care lawsuit. Finally, I believe we will see the tea party adopted in other countries as the effectiveness, impact and message are demonstrated.

The political and media elites will continue to be confounded by tea party success because they view things through a CI lens and seek answers at the wrong scale. That will not change until they understand that the tea party structure is decentralized power distributor.

September 18, 2010

Iran: Will We Act or Will We Wait?

Filed under: Political,Theoretical — glberry @ 5:24 pm

Will We Act or Will We Wait?

When President Bush made the decision to invade Iraq, many of us said, “You acted precipitously, you should have waited”. Now, it comes to Iran, and President Obama is waiting. When not if Iran produces a nuclear weapon, won’t many of us say, “You should have acted sooner. You waited too long”? Why the difference in strategy and which approach will prove to be most prudent?

This is the way I would explain the difference.

There was a lily pad on a pond, which doubled in size each day until, after 30 days, it covered the pond. The riddle is, on what day did it cover half the pond? Most of us think the answer is the 15th day, but it is not. The answer is the 29th day … because the lily pad doubles in size each day.

So, it will not take 15 days to cover the first half of the pond and 15 days to cover the last half of the pond. What seems unbelievable to most of us is that it takes 29 days to cover the first half of the pond but only one day to cover the second half. This is exponential power.

Linear thinkers (most of us), who add to get the rate of change, think the answer is the 15th day and that 15 days remain to cover the last half of the pond. Exponential thinkers, who multiply to get the rate of change, know the answer is the 29th day and that only one day remains to cover the last half of the pond.  Q. How much of the pond is actually covered on the 15th day? A. 3/100,000 or 0.003% of the pond.

In the 21st century, for the first time in history, our world has become visibly exponential, that is, the rate of change is accelerating visibly, just like the lily pad. So, we are mistakenly thinking that the 29th day is only the 15th day. The result is we feel that (exponential) problems are becoming crises too suddenly, and traditional (linear) solutions are being implemented too slowly.  It is frightening us, angering us, making us feel that things are out of control.

President Bush was thinking exponentially. He understood the consequences of waiting and so he acted well before the 29th day. President Obama is thinking linearly and waiting. In effect, he is saying, “It is only the 15th day, we have plenty of time, we can fix it later”. When the 29th day arrives with Iran, how many of us will think mistakenly that it is only the 15th day? Suddenly, we will be out of time.

We have paid a terrible price already for mistakenly thinking that the 29th day was only the 15th day. Do you really think “We have plenty of time” to avoid another disastrous 29th day, even after our real-life experience staring us right in the face

… of waiting too long to avoid the 2008 Financial Crisis?

… or of waiting too long to avoid the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill?

… and now, hearing at the 2010 G20 Economic Summit that we are going to wait too long again, this time to do something about the US National Debt?

Linear thinking is making us act like we have a death wish!

We don’t have a lot of time. Iran is not waiting. Remember the lily pad. Israel will remember. Whether we like it or not … the exponential clock is ticking.

tick … tick … tick.

For the moment, the choice is still ours. The price-tag is our future.

George L Berry, Actuary, 29thday.org

August 31, 2010

What was Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally really about? (Maybe not what you think)

Filed under: Activism,Ecomonic,Political,Theoretical — glberry @ 10:40 am

Here is a question. Was Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally on August 28th about November 2?   In other words, was the context of the rally in terms of the 2010 mid-term elections?

Now, you might say, “That is a trick question.   It was not about politics.   Glenn said so.”

I believe you would be correct but probably not for the correct reason.   If I am right (and I believe I am or I wouldn’t be writing this) and if I can communicate clearly in this article,  I believe a light will go off in your head before you finish reading it and you will see the rally in a very important and new way.    But first, indulge me for a minute while I lay an important foundation for the discussion.

Imagine there is a pond, a small pond only 30 square feet in size.   In the corner of that pond, there is a lily pad that is 1 square foot in size. The lily pad starts to grow and each day it adds 1 square foot in size.   On what day will the lily paid cover the pond?   The answer is easy; on the 30th day. On what day will the lily pad cover half the pond?   Again, the answer is easy, on the 15th day.

Now imagine the same pond with a very small lily pad in the corner.    This time, each day, the lily pad doubles in size and on the 30th day in covers the entire pond. On what day does it cover half the pond?   The answer is on the 29th day because it doubles in size each day.    So, on the 29th day it covers ½ the pond and doubles the next day to cover all of it.    Was your first thought that it covered half the pond on the 15th like the first example?    For many people, that is the case.

Now, imagine that lily pad is a problem we face.   In the first scenario where it adds 1 square foot a day, on the 15th day, we have as much time left to solve the problem as has passed already; that is, 15 days.   We see the problem and we sense that it is pretty serious since it covers half the pond.    “That’s OK”, we say, “Because we have 15 days to solve it”.

Here is the issue.   The problems we face today are more like the second scenario.   The one where the pond is half covered on the 29th day.   The big problem is that we think it is the 15th day because that is how we think.    We think we have 15 days to fix it but then we wake up on the next day, the 30th day, and the pond is completely covered.    The problem has overtaken us and we can’t understand what happened.   We thought we had so much time.

Our problems are like the second scenario,  that is,  exponential in nature but our solutions tend to be like the first scenario,  that is,  linear.   It has always been so but we never noticed because exponential problems look and act linear when we are moving slowly.   The change came with the technological and communication revolutions in the last 30 years.   Suddenly, our exponential problems started acting exponential but we didn’t realize it.   We still thought they were linear.   This disconnect has caused confusion and fear.

Back to Glenn in a minute but let’s talk about November 2.    In the short term, November 2 is like the 30th day.   The political landscape in America is at the 29th day on a small time scale – say less than a year.   I believe November 2 will be the 30th day on that scale.   I have included a picture of an exponential curve below and how it changes over time – say the 30 days in our pond example.   For the 1 year political scale,   I believe we are at the 29th day, as indicated in the bubble.   See how steep the line is at the 29th day?   Think of steepness as activity.   The steeper the line, the more that is happening.   This is true for both problems and solutions.

expo2

Have you noticed that some people are concerned that the Republicans will win in November but then they will do what they have always done and move back to the center?    For many, that thought it discouraging.   It is like a 30th day solution but a 31st day defeat.

In fact, that is exactly what I believe will happen.   But, take heart, because I believe there is a bigger scale.   A scale that is 4 to 6 years in length. On that scale, we are not on the 29th day.    We are on, say, the 21st day.   That solution is also exponential. In the chart below,  I have put an arrow where I think we are on the 4 to 6 year scale. Again, think of the slope of the curve as the amount of activity.

expo1

Now, notice the line is not as steep at the 21st day as it is at the 29th day.   In other words, less is happening.   This is always the case with both problems and solutions.   So, what is happening at this “21st” day? Let’s look at the primaries.   If Murkowski of Alaska ends up losing to Joe Miller, she will be the seventh Congressional incumbent to lose in a primary this year.   Note, there are quite a few incumbents in State races that lost as well.   Seven is a lot but it is not a whole lot.    I believe it is what we would expect for the “steepness of the curve” on the 21st day.

But what about 2012? Or 2014?   What “day” will those be? I don’t know exactly but I believe they will be moving up the curve approaching the 29th day.    If I am right, it won’t matter if the Republicans do what they always have done – move back to the center because 2012 will be the 24th day and 2014 will be the 26th day.   How many incumbents will lose in 2012?   In 2014?   I believe the slope will continue to increase and the activity will continue to increase.   I believe there will be more incumbent losses in 2012 and even more in 2014.

Will 2016 be the 29th day? Could be. At some point in the next 6 years or so,   I believe we will see almost all of Congress either truly repent or lose their seat.   In other words, the 29th for Congress is almost complete replacement.

Does that sound crazy?   You might say, “Yes”.

If you want some science behind the claim, you can read CIC and Complexity but there is a reason it sounds crazy.   The reason is that it is really hard to see the problem or the solution on the 15th or even the 21st day.    Let’s go back to our original scenario, the second one, where the lily pad doubles. If it covers half the pond on the 29th day, do you how know big the lily pad is on the 15th day?   I did the math.   The answer is about 1/10 of a square inch.

That doesn’t look like that big of a problem, does it?   But that is when you need to start fixing it.

Finally, let me talk about the “Restoring Honor” rally.    I believe Glenn has identified a third trend on an even bigger scale than the short term or medium term political scales I talked about above.   On that scale, say, a 20 year scale, I believe we truly are on the 15th day.    The problem is apparent but not particularly clear.

I think people were surprised by the size and passion of the rally for one of two reasons.   Because we are on the 15th day, Glenn’s rally may look like a solution without a problem.    Or, it could easily be construed as a 21st or 29th day solution to a smaller scale event.   Look at the media coverage.   They don’t really know what to make of it.   They are confused and fearful.   They can’t understand how Glenn got that many people to show up.   Even O’Reilly didn’t think there was even a chance 100,000 people would attend.   That is not surprising given the problem and solution are both exponential but the old media and government (especially the old media and government) tend to be linear thinkers.

Another rule I have found is that the larger the scale, the more fundamental the issues.    In other words, short-term problems and solutions tend to be very specific and identifiable.   Longer-term problems and solutions tend to be more general and based on fundamental principles.    That is what I believe Glenn is onto.   His solution is one that addresses the fundamental question of who we are.

We have been moving away from our traditional roots for a long time but that has accelerated in the last 30 years.   It has accelerated as we moved up the curve and the curve got steeper and the activity increased, just like the graphs above.   We are on or around the 15th day.   We have the time to fix it.   It doesn’t look like a huge deal to a lot of people.   After all, it only covers 1/10 of an inch of the pond.   But now is the time to start before we start to move up the curve and it gets too steep.   Before the 29th day because then, we will be out of time.

One more thing;  if we truly are at the 15th day, then all the problems we have seen so far only represent 1/10 of a square inch of the pond.   In the next 15 days, we will be exposed to the rest.   I believe that is what Glenn is referring to when he says a storm is coming like we have never seen.

Glenn Beck is proposing an exponential solution to an exponential problem and he is proposing it on the 15th day, when the problem doesn’t look that big.   In fact, most people don’t even see it.   But many do.   The people who attended the rally do, even if they can’t quite put their finger on it.

We can solve this fundamental problem.   Glenn is right in the solution he proposes and there is enough time left to change.   So, now you know why I say that the “Restoring Honor” rally really isn’t about the November 2 elections and,  if I have achieved my goal,  you have hope.

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