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exponential problems require exponential solutions

April 1, 2013

“Let them eat cake”

Filed under: Activism — glberry @ 4:29 am

My thesis is that our dream of reducing federal government spending is just that … a dream. The Sequester was a minor decrease in the rate of increase in federal government spending. And yet the message from Washington is clear. We are to be punished for it. White House tours over the Easter Season were cancelled, border security has been compromised, expect long lines at airports, thousands of illegal aliens have been released from jails, military tuition assistance has been cancelled, there is even a threat to our national security. We have heard from some of our leaders that “Federal Government Spending is not a problem.”, “The National Debt is not a problem.”.

The amount of tax money in Washington has increased the concentration of power there to the point of creating an elite class of our federal representatives and bureaucrats. Did you hear that President Obama has a food taster, just like the kings in history? Our Founding Fathers experienced tyranny and much of our Constitution was designed to prevent it from happening again. Power is a zero-sum game. As power increased in Washington, it was at the expense of our personal freedom. I am old now and have witnessed the decline in our freedom firsthand.

Fortunately for us, the 21st century with personal computers and the internet has created a world where distributing power is a real possibility. Rather than expending our energy trying to force Washington to reduce spending, we should be using the power of our personal computers to start a Distribute Power Movement away from the Federal Government and back to the States. Read the US Constitution and you will see clearly that this is what our Founding Fathers had in mind.

The advantage to us would be the creation of competition. There is one Federal Government but there are 50 States. With the mobility of the population and of business, States which did what we want would grow and States which did not would shrink. But we must be quick. Already 50 percent of our population pays no federal income tax and has no incentive to transfer power back to us. You may feel that the States have not done a good job either but at least consider the possibility that may be the result of our lack of diligence, that competition among the States will be enhanced if we hold their feet to the fire.

A peculiar characteristic of Freedom is that it is not free. And it is not guaranteed. The loss of Freedom does not last for a few years … it lasts for centuries. And it is preserved the old-fashioned way. We have to earn it to deserve it. What has been happening to us is not a TV Reality Show, it is real life. All of us are busy. All of us are being encouraged to feel helpless. Many of us are waiting for someone else to do something. On a monument at Valley Forge is inscribed the words of George Washington warning future generations to guard against tyranny. He was not warning government. He was warning us.

I am hoping you will not read this blog with the intention of commenting on some small error I may have made. I am hoping you will join with me to begin a Distribute Power Movement, to begin to look for leaders who will be willing to do this, to speak out, to talk to your friends, to use the power the 21st century has given you, so that together we can change the world.

It may be that I am taking some risk of reprisal by writing this blog as you may be if you speak out. It was Socrates who said, “When the debate is over, slander is the tool of the loser”. But I am reminded of the old Chinese proverb, “To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, be nothing”.

January 21, 2013

Yes, Virginia, there really is a Free Lunch

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 10:14 am

Do you remember the Financial Crisis of 2008? You woke up that morning in September, took a shower, had your first cup of coffee, turned on the news, and heard that, apparently out of nowhere, we were on the thin edge of a financial disaster that would make the Great Depression look like a picnic. Do you remember how you felt, the sense of disbelief, the feeling of real fear? How? Why?

It happened because Congress passed a law that allowed the banks to take the risk of mortgage default, and then transfer that risk to someone else. Congress even encouraged the banks to offer mortgages to anyone, regardless of their ability to pay, because everyone should be able to own their own home, right? And then Wall Street firms bundled these mortgages and sold them. But these firms didn’t take the risk either because they had transferred it to someone else. And the bankers and brokers got bonuses for doing this, the more they sold, the bigger the bonuses. Remember?

Most of us didn’t understand how it had happened because most of us don’t understand risk. Risk scares us. We may talk about it vaguely but most of us don’t understand how it works exactly, how it can be transferred exactly, how we can protect ourselves from it exactly. And so we try to steer clear of it, hope it doesn’t happen to us. Think about something else … anything else.

Actuaries understand risk. They know how it works, how to transfer it, how to be protected from it. That is their area of expertise. Many of them like the feeling of power, knowing about something that scares everybody. They have done a terrible job telling anyone else how risk really works. In fairness to actuaries, nobody else really wanted to hear about it anyway.

My three sons and I are actuaries. My eldest son and I talked about the coming Financial Crisis in 2000, when we saw the banks transfer the risk of a mortgage default to someone else. That made the risk exponential. That meant that there would be a Limiting Factor to this risk because all exponential risks have a Limiting Factor because exponential risks can’t go on forever. The way they work is that everything looks OK, and then one morning you wake up to discover that, apparently out of nowhere, the roof has caved in.

Are you thinking right now that I am bragging, being condescending, rubbing it in that I know something you don’t? My defense is this: I am trying to warn you that it is going to happen again.

I have written a book about it that is available online, The 29th Day: Changing our Future (check out www.29thday.org). The 29th day is what I call Limiting Factors. The reason these exponential risks are occurring now is because the 21st century is different than past centuries. The difference is that in this century we have computers and the internet. They have unleashed a force which I call CIC (kick). It is an exponential force created by combining Creativity, Information, and Communication. This force is making everything else exponential because of the way we now communicate. You are not imagining the world is moving more quickly. It is. So we are living in a world of exponential problems and trying to solve them with linear solutions, a holdover from the old days of the Industrial Revolution. Problems are becoming crises too quickly now and our solutions are just … too … slow. My book discusses how to substitute exponential solutions for linear solutions. Exponential solutions can avoid another 29th day; linear solutions cannot. I’m not a very good writer and I’m not famous so very few people have read it.

If you are still reading this, let’s go back to the 2008 Financial Crisis. Who paid for this exponential risk? Who got left holding the bag? Was it the banks or Wall Street or politicians? Not hardly. No, you and I paid for it, you and I ended up being the risk-takers. You and I paid for their Free Lunch, Virginia. And most of us didn’t even know how it had happened.

Did your 401(k) evaporate that September? Did you lose your job? Did the value of your home drop below the amount of your mortgage? Did you lose some of your choices, some of your freedom? If so, then you have already paid for it. For the rest of us (for all of us), the rest of the payment has been deferred, but not forgotten. If you think about it, you know where it is. It is buried in our National Debt.

What are the big ticket exponential risks right now, for which there will be 29th days … guaranteed … and in our lifetime, to boot. Well, we have the National Debt, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, unfunded public pension liabilities (bankrupting states and cities), Iran’s foray into nuclear weapons, the Arab Spring, just to mention a few. Are there linear solutions that can avoid them. NO! Are there exponential solutions that can protect us from them. YES!

Why am I telling you this? Am I just perverse? No, I am telling you this because CIC did something else. It transferred power to you and to me. Now we have a voice with our computers and the internet, with email, with Facebook, with Twitter, with Blogs. If enough of us use these tools, our leaders will hear us, they will have to hear us. They will realize that we understand these exponential risks are real, that 29th days are guaranteed unless concrete action is taken, that we are the ones who are taking these risks, and we don’t like it.

If we expect our politicians to understand risk, to figure out exponential solutions to exponential problems, then we will be looking for answers in the wrong place. They are motivated to kick the can down the road, to hope that somehow these problems can be deferred until they are out of office. You know it and I know it. We will have to make it crystal clear to them that we are demanding concrete workable solutions … now.

I know you are busy, that this seems like an impossible task, that it seems too complicated, that you may be hoping someone else will do it. I know that the news just seems like a TV Reality Show, that we feel helpless to change it. But this is real life, your life that is on the line.

I say to you with all the earnestness that I possess, begin to speak out, tell your friends to speak out. The effect of your action, at first, will seem insignificant, that nothing is changing. Be patient because what you will be doing is exponential. At first, it will appear that nothing is changing because that is the way that exponential forces work. But something will be changing. And someday, you will wake up one morning, have that first cup of coffee, turn on the news, and hear that you have been heard … guaranteed.

If we do nothing, then someday when we turn on the news, we will learn that, apparently out of nowhere, we will have lost our standard of living, we will have lost our freedom, and our worst nightmare has suddenly come true. Still don’t believe me? Show this to an actuary. See what he (she) says about it.

For the moment, the choice is ours. The price-tag is our future.

Remember. The exponential clock is ticking.
tick … tick … tick.

January 3, 2013

The Sin of Omission

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 9:06 am

If enough of us were willing to speak out about injustice, our leaders would not dare to be deceptive. This sin of omission on our part hurts us and our national honor … not them. That is the irony of a sin of omission. We see the risk as the consequences to ourselves if we dare to be bold and speak out. In fact, the risk is the damage we do to our character and self-respect if we remain silent. Think of the people you admire and respect. Do they speak out or do they hide in the background?

Be bold my friends and you will be changing the world.

December 14, 2012

What is thinking exponentially?

Filed under: Activism — Tags: — glberry @ 12:26 pm

Here are three examples of thinking exponentially.
1. Do your best to make people feel that they are important. They will become engaged and increase their effort to 110%. Here is a simple example – eliminate reserved parking spaces from the company parking lot.
2. When you accomplish something, don’t try to take credit for it. You will end up getting more credit than you think and people will want to work with you.
3. Be willing to tell people everything you know – don’t be an information hoarder. You will find that they will return the favor. The person who gets ahead fastest is the one who teaches someone else how to do their job. Then when a promotion comes up, someone is available immediately to take over their old job.

Exponential thinking is not just a new way of thinking, it is a new, rewarding way of life.

September 20, 2010

The Coming Tea Party Tsunami and the Political Establishment

Filed under: Activism,Political,Theoretical — glberry @ 6:01 pm

Remember when the Tsunami hit Thailand a few years ago? We saw tragic images of children playing on the beach just moments before the wave overcame and engulfed them. With regards to the Tea Party movement and politics in America, the elite media and the establishment political class (both Democrat and Republican) remind me of those children.

So we see Democrat strategists crafting messages for political gain. We see the likes of Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer wringing their hands over who will hold committee chairmanships in the Senate.

Such chitter chatter reminds me of those poor children who may have been arguing over who gets to place the flag on the top of the sand castle not realizing that 1/4 mile off shore there was a 15 foot wall of water that was about to completely overwhelm them. And then they wonder why we don’t pay them any mind.

The establishment is a power hoarding structure. It uses Creativity and Information (CI). It will try to consolidate its power as it crashes. The tea party is a power distributing structure. It uses Creativity, Information and Communication. It will continue to expand. The Communication component is both its method and message to distribute power.

That is not the only difference. The CI political establishment is centralized while the tea party is decentralized. This is a critical difference when it comes to robustness and power. See CIC and Complexity: The Tea Party as a Complex System.

The establishment and the tea party manifest their impacts on different scales. A complex system like the tea party operates on the individual person level but effects of the system can occur at a much higher level. This is called emergence. Emergent properties are not visible at lower scale (i.e. by looking at individual members of the tea party) and are not predictable by looking at the members of a system. Examples of an unexpected and unpredictable emergent property include the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts and the primary losses of eight national office incumbents. I expect the results of November 2 will also be surprising.

More than November 2, I expect incumbent losses to accelerate in 2012 and 2014. Even before the 2012 election, expect to see pro-term limit activism increase. Pay attention to 10th amendment movements next year, especially in the context of the Health Care lawsuit. Finally, I believe we will see the tea party adopted in other countries as the effectiveness, impact and message are demonstrated.

The political and media elites will continue to be confounded by tea party success because they view things through a CI lens and seek answers at the wrong scale. That will not change until they understand that the tea party structure is decentralized power distributor.

August 31, 2010

What was Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally really about? (Maybe not what you think)

Filed under: Activism,Ecomonic,Political,Theoretical — glberry @ 10:40 am

Here is a question. Was Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally on August 28th about November 2?   In other words, was the context of the rally in terms of the 2010 mid-term elections?

Now, you might say, “That is a trick question.   It was not about politics.   Glenn said so.”

I believe you would be correct but probably not for the correct reason.   If I am right (and I believe I am or I wouldn’t be writing this) and if I can communicate clearly in this article,  I believe a light will go off in your head before you finish reading it and you will see the rally in a very important and new way.    But first, indulge me for a minute while I lay an important foundation for the discussion.

Imagine there is a pond, a small pond only 30 square feet in size.   In the corner of that pond, there is a lily pad that is 1 square foot in size. The lily pad starts to grow and each day it adds 1 square foot in size.   On what day will the lily paid cover the pond?   The answer is easy; on the 30th day. On what day will the lily pad cover half the pond?   Again, the answer is easy, on the 15th day.

Now imagine the same pond with a very small lily pad in the corner.    This time, each day, the lily pad doubles in size and on the 30th day in covers the entire pond. On what day does it cover half the pond?   The answer is on the 29th day because it doubles in size each day.    So, on the 29th day it covers ½ the pond and doubles the next day to cover all of it.    Was your first thought that it covered half the pond on the 15th like the first example?    For many people, that is the case.

Now, imagine that lily pad is a problem we face.   In the first scenario where it adds 1 square foot a day, on the 15th day, we have as much time left to solve the problem as has passed already; that is, 15 days.   We see the problem and we sense that it is pretty serious since it covers half the pond.    “That’s OK”, we say, “Because we have 15 days to solve it”.

Here is the issue.   The problems we face today are more like the second scenario.   The one where the pond is half covered on the 29th day.   The big problem is that we think it is the 15th day because that is how we think.    We think we have 15 days to fix it but then we wake up on the next day, the 30th day, and the pond is completely covered.    The problem has overtaken us and we can’t understand what happened.   We thought we had so much time.

Our problems are like the second scenario,  that is,  exponential in nature but our solutions tend to be like the first scenario,  that is,  linear.   It has always been so but we never noticed because exponential problems look and act linear when we are moving slowly.   The change came with the technological and communication revolutions in the last 30 years.   Suddenly, our exponential problems started acting exponential but we didn’t realize it.   We still thought they were linear.   This disconnect has caused confusion and fear.

Back to Glenn in a minute but let’s talk about November 2.    In the short term, November 2 is like the 30th day.   The political landscape in America is at the 29th day on a small time scale – say less than a year.   I believe November 2 will be the 30th day on that scale.   I have included a picture of an exponential curve below and how it changes over time – say the 30 days in our pond example.   For the 1 year political scale,   I believe we are at the 29th day, as indicated in the bubble.   See how steep the line is at the 29th day?   Think of steepness as activity.   The steeper the line, the more that is happening.   This is true for both problems and solutions.

expo2

Have you noticed that some people are concerned that the Republicans will win in November but then they will do what they have always done and move back to the center?    For many, that thought it discouraging.   It is like a 30th day solution but a 31st day defeat.

In fact, that is exactly what I believe will happen.   But, take heart, because I believe there is a bigger scale.   A scale that is 4 to 6 years in length. On that scale, we are not on the 29th day.    We are on, say, the 21st day.   That solution is also exponential. In the chart below,  I have put an arrow where I think we are on the 4 to 6 year scale. Again, think of the slope of the curve as the amount of activity.

expo1

Now, notice the line is not as steep at the 21st day as it is at the 29th day.   In other words, less is happening.   This is always the case with both problems and solutions.   So, what is happening at this “21st” day? Let’s look at the primaries.   If Murkowski of Alaska ends up losing to Joe Miller, she will be the seventh Congressional incumbent to lose in a primary this year.   Note, there are quite a few incumbents in State races that lost as well.   Seven is a lot but it is not a whole lot.    I believe it is what we would expect for the “steepness of the curve” on the 21st day.

But what about 2012? Or 2014?   What “day” will those be? I don’t know exactly but I believe they will be moving up the curve approaching the 29th day.    If I am right, it won’t matter if the Republicans do what they always have done – move back to the center because 2012 will be the 24th day and 2014 will be the 26th day.   How many incumbents will lose in 2012?   In 2014?   I believe the slope will continue to increase and the activity will continue to increase.   I believe there will be more incumbent losses in 2012 and even more in 2014.

Will 2016 be the 29th day? Could be. At some point in the next 6 years or so,   I believe we will see almost all of Congress either truly repent or lose their seat.   In other words, the 29th for Congress is almost complete replacement.

Does that sound crazy?   You might say, “Yes”.

If you want some science behind the claim, you can read CIC and Complexity but there is a reason it sounds crazy.   The reason is that it is really hard to see the problem or the solution on the 15th or even the 21st day.    Let’s go back to our original scenario, the second one, where the lily pad doubles. If it covers half the pond on the 29th day, do you how know big the lily pad is on the 15th day?   I did the math.   The answer is about 1/10 of a square inch.

That doesn’t look like that big of a problem, does it?   But that is when you need to start fixing it.

Finally, let me talk about the “Restoring Honor” rally.    I believe Glenn has identified a third trend on an even bigger scale than the short term or medium term political scales I talked about above.   On that scale, say, a 20 year scale, I believe we truly are on the 15th day.    The problem is apparent but not particularly clear.

I think people were surprised by the size and passion of the rally for one of two reasons.   Because we are on the 15th day, Glenn’s rally may look like a solution without a problem.    Or, it could easily be construed as a 21st or 29th day solution to a smaller scale event.   Look at the media coverage.   They don’t really know what to make of it.   They are confused and fearful.   They can’t understand how Glenn got that many people to show up.   Even O’Reilly didn’t think there was even a chance 100,000 people would attend.   That is not surprising given the problem and solution are both exponential but the old media and government (especially the old media and government) tend to be linear thinkers.

Another rule I have found is that the larger the scale, the more fundamental the issues.    In other words, short-term problems and solutions tend to be very specific and identifiable.   Longer-term problems and solutions tend to be more general and based on fundamental principles.    That is what I believe Glenn is onto.   His solution is one that addresses the fundamental question of who we are.

We have been moving away from our traditional roots for a long time but that has accelerated in the last 30 years.   It has accelerated as we moved up the curve and the curve got steeper and the activity increased, just like the graphs above.   We are on or around the 15th day.   We have the time to fix it.   It doesn’t look like a huge deal to a lot of people.   After all, it only covers 1/10 of an inch of the pond.   But now is the time to start before we start to move up the curve and it gets too steep.   Before the 29th day because then, we will be out of time.

One more thing;  if we truly are at the 15th day, then all the problems we have seen so far only represent 1/10 of a square inch of the pond.   In the next 15 days, we will be exposed to the rest.   I believe that is what Glenn is referring to when he says a storm is coming like we have never seen.

Glenn Beck is proposing an exponential solution to an exponential problem and he is proposing it on the 15th day, when the problem doesn’t look that big.   In fact, most people don’t even see it.   But many do.   The people who attended the rally do, even if they can’t quite put their finger on it.

We can solve this fundamental problem.   Glenn is right in the solution he proposes and there is enough time left to change.   So, now you know why I say that the “Restoring Honor” rally really isn’t about the November 2 elections and,  if I have achieved my goal,  you have hope.

October 22, 2009

Did Brinkmannship Fell Berlin’s Wall? Brinkmann Says It Did -WSJ

Filed under: Activism,Media,Political — glberry @ 11:55 am

An article from the WSJ on what really brought down the Berlin wall. This is a fascinating story. Essentially, East German Politburo member Günter Schabowski wasn’t up to speed on a recent travel policy and blew his answer at an international press conference. This led the media to conclude the border was open. The effect was immediate.

Here was the consequence…

The result, once East Berliners had seen that night’s news on West German television, was chaos at border crossings across the city…At Bornholmer Strasse, one of the main checkpoints in central Berlin, confused border guards couldn’t get clear orders on how to deal with the crush, and debated whether to open fire. Instead, they opened the barrier, and the Berlin Wall was history.

CIC principle # 2 comes to mind – The Message must be an exact match to the self-interests of the target audience(s). That was certainly the case here with regard to the East German population.

Believable news reports (the Messenger) that the border was open motivated thousands of East Germans to flood the border crossings with the expectation that they could cross. It is hard to think of another circumstance that could motivate thousands of oppressed people to approach border crossings where many people had been killed.

CIC principles #3 and #4. The Message must be communicated to the target audience(s) and the Messenger must be trusted, with crystal clear core values.

I am sure others apply as well.

October 19, 2009

The Shifting Political Sand Pile

Filed under: Activism,Political — glberry @ 1:46 pm

From the American Thinker.

Publius Valerius asks…

Why did the Tea Party / Town Hall protests surprise so many in the political establishment?  Why did they make Democrats recoil in horror and send Republicans running for cover when confronted by them?  Why did the White House claim to be unaware of the protests and the media feel compelled to ignore and diminish them even when they mobilized hundreds of thousands in demonstrations around the country?

Why did the NY Times find “unnamed ‘Republican officials’… fret over a backlash” to the Tea Parties and downplay their significance?  Why are Republicans “wary of the anger directed at all politicians”?  After all, the politicians that this strong, passionate grass-roots movement are mostly angry with are Democrats.

His short answer is this.

The answer may be found in something called “Complexity Theory”.

Whenever you see the term “Complexity Theory”, think CIC.

He continues…

To better understand the relation of Complexity Theory to politics, let’s examine a deceptively simple system: a pile of sand.

Imagine grains of sand, all exactly the same size and weight and all being dropped at the same rate onto a flat metal dish one grain at a time. At first there appears to be no organized symmetry to the placement of the grains which spread all over the dish.  Eventually however, the grains “self-organize”; that is, they tend to pile up in the center of the plate.  As more of the grains are dropped, the pile eventually grows into a small cone in the center of the dish.  Of course, the surface of the cone is the most easily visible part of it, but it represents a minority of the entire pile which exists inside the cone.

He then does an excellent job of discussing the political grains of sand that have been piling up. 

He ends with this.

This de-centralized, interconnected, uncontrollable movement is 21st Century politics.  It has made the top-down mentality increasingly irrelevant or obsolete. To survive and prosper, one must understand that the only certainty is that the very nature of modern society precludes political certainty.

To succeed one must understand decentralized, organic power is NOT subject to the sclerotic thinking associated with the centralized control mentality of the 20th Century.
This is pure CIC vs CI.   CI is represented here by the established political parties while the grassroots have self organized via distributed power networks.  There is perfect alignment of motivation and means and the result is an exponential growth in the tea party movement.  So much so that the DC protests grew from 3,000 on April 15th to over 100,000 (more?) on September 12. 

Politicians, old media and the park police didn’t see it coming.  For them, it was the 29th day.

October 18, 2009

Save a Slave

Filed under: Activism,Political — glberry @ 9:07 am

The Girl Revolution blog posted a story discussing the many ways people in the West can help women who are suffering in the third world. From that post…

I, a middle-class American housewife, can literally support a war rape survivor The Congo for $27 a month. I’m most excited about doing this one with Ainsley, due to the letter exchange. We can save a woman and make her economically independent for $27, and she’ll be our pen pal. Ainsley and I already signed up for this one. We can’t wait to find out who our sister is, where she lives and what her life is like.

This is powerful stuff. How is this CIC? CIC solutions will remove the barriers and improve the connections between the end points in the system in question. Here, the various websites mentioned connect a middle class American housewife with a third world woman who needs her help. Think about that.

There are other principles as well. The focus on cause rather than symptoms. Cooperation rather than confrontation. The leveraging of the relative value of $27 in America versus the value of $27 in the third world.

She ends the piece with this and she clearly gets it.

This is, honestly, the most powerful thing I’ve heard in a long time. We can DO something to change the situation for women and girls around the world. Something effective. Something meaningful. Something important. Something that doesn’t just change a woman, but a family, a lineage, a country, a world. It’s exponential change. Exponential change for $27.

It is really encouraging to see these principles at work solving problems in the real world.

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